We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO’s offering price. Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism. With such a wide range of possible outcomes for the company’s financial future, we created forecasts and valuations for three scenarios and probability-weighted them.
If our weighted $63 fair value estimate of SpaceX is accurate, at the offering price of $135, investors are adding $72 per share of “option premium” to their investment, for the right to participate, come what may, in the long list of future projects SpaceX may undertake.
This post originally appeared at Morningstar.